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OPEC and its allies’ recent decision to reduce oil production will soon impact US gas prices. The group, known as OPEC+, declared a production cut of over 1.6 million barrels a day from May through the end of the year. This announcement led to a 6% increase in both Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, and WTI, the US benchmark, on Monday.
The immediate effect of the production cut announcement was seen in gasoline futures, which will be swiftly passed on to US drivers. RBOB, the leading wholesale gasoline price, surged about 8 cents per gallon or 3% in morning trading.
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“I think OPEC is reawakening the inflation monster,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS. “The White House has to be shocked and major-time pissed. It certainly alters the calculus for a while.”
With the national average for US gas prices at $3.51 per gallon, Kloza predicts it could reach $3.80 to $3.90 due to OPEC’s move. While prices may not hit $5 a gallon, US drivers could see prices above year-earlier levels by the end of the summer, especially if Gulf Coast production is impacted by hurricanes or other natural disasters.
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Kloza mentioned that additional releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and increased US oil production and refining capacity may prevent prices from soaring to the record levels of 2022. Nevertheless, a 1 million barrel per day cut by OPEC+ poses a challenge to balancing oil supply.
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